Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

Multi-Agent reinforcement learning has received lot of attention in recent years and have applications in many different areas. Existing methods involving Centralized Training and Decentralized execution, attempts to train the agents towards learning a pattern of coordinated actions to arrive at optimal joint policy. However if some agents are stochastic to varying degrees of stochasticity, the above methods often fail to converge and provides poor coordination among agents. In this paper we show how this stochasticity of agents, which could be a result of malfunction or aging of robots, can add to the uncertainty in coordination and there contribute to unsatisfactory global coordination. In this case, the deterministic agents have to understand the behavior and limitations of the stochastic agents while arriving at optimal joint policy. Our solution, DSDF which tunes the discounted factor for the agents according to uncertainty and use the values to update the utility networks of individual agents. DSDF also helps in imparting an extent of reliability in coordination thereby granting stochastic agents tasks which are immediate and of shorter trajectory with deterministic ones taking the tasks which involve longer planning. Such an method enables joint co-ordinations of agents some of which may be partially performing and thereby can reduce or delay the investment of agent/robot replacement in many circumstances. Results on benchmark environment for different scenarios shows the efficacy of the proposed approach when compared with existing approaches.